All NASA Contracts — January 13, 2026

SpaceX secures $425M firm-fixed-price contract (up to $843M options) for USDV, a first-mover opportunity in post-ISS infrastructure with 2031-2035 horizon.

JHU APL's $222M DART contract supports asteroid deflection tech with $119M outlayed, signaling NASA's multi-mission commitment via APL.

AURA ($1.46B JWST), Caltech ($810M JPL), and JHU APL ($394M IMAP) absorb 87% of value as cost-no-fee structures limit profit upside.

Low outlays (37% of $3.3B obligated) across contracts indicate pacing delays, e.g., SpaceX $25M/$425M and Caltech $46k/$810M.

Long timelines to 2027-2035 with mission dependencies (JWST post-launch, USDV deorbit) heighten technical/completion risks.

$1.5B+ in unexercised options (e.g., SpaceX to $843M, AURA to $1.73B) offer revenue upside through 2027-2035.

Subawards ($113M to 117 firms in IMAP) and task orders signal supply chain dispersion for deeper space probes.

87% of value to AURA/Caltech/APL for JWST/JPL/IMAP/DART reflects FFRDC stability but caps commercial penetration.

SpaceX USDV contract pivots from operations to disposal, with $425M base amid low current outlays.

{"entity"=>"SpaceX USDV program", "reason"=>"$425M obligation with $843M potential and only $25M outlayed signals early-stage ramp risk/opportunity.", "trigger"=>"Outlays exceeding $100M or options exercised"}

{"entity"=>"JHU APL IMAP/DART pipelines", "reason"=>"$616M combined with $491M outlayed and $16M options; subawards indicate network effects.", "trigger"=>"2026 IMAP completion or DART follow-ons"}

{"entity"=>"Caltech JPL task orders", "reason"=>"$810M ceiling with negligible $46k outlay post-2018 end date suggests dormant potential.", "trigger"=>"New task order issuances or extensions"}