General Federal Contracts — December 25, 2025

6 DHS contracts obligate $837M (27% of total), targeting radios, CT scanners, AWS, and screening tech through 2032, with $484M+ options upside.

4 NASA awards total $646M obligated, with strong outlays ($469M, 73%) on engineering/safety support to 2028, signaling stable funding for missions like INCUS/JUNO.

5 DOE contracts obligate $630M (21% total), with $387M outlayed (61%) on 5-year support services to 2028, favoring disadvantaged firms.

9/19 awards (47%, $1.3B obligated) to small/SDVOSB/8(a) firms via set-asides, enabling outsized wins like Modern Tech Sol's $625M ceiling.

Zero outlays in 4 early-stage awards ($713M obligated) signal potential funding delays; firm-fixed-price in 7 contracts ($889M) exposes to cost overruns.

Long horizons to 2028-2032 in 11 contracts ($2.1B) heighten performance/renewal risks amid award-fee variability.

Options unexercised in 16/19 ($5B+ ceiling vs $3B obligated) create 60%+ downside if not pursued.

$5B+ unexercised options across awards, e.g., Vertex ($3.4B ceiling), Peraton ($363M), Modern Tech ($490M+), tied to mission needs.

Set-aside advantages for small/disadvantaged firms in DHS/DOE/NASA yield repeat potential post-2026 ends.

High outlay progress (avg 55% on $1.9B tracked) in mature contracts signals steady FCF, e.g., Leidos ($98M/71%), KeyLogic ($114M/77%).

$660M+ in TSA/CBP/ICE awards for CT scanners, radios, AWS through 2032 underscores aviation/border security priorities.

4 awards ($481M, 70% outlayed) for NV/WV sites to 2028 highlight sustained cleanup funding.

$646M with 73% executed supports GSFC/MSFC/JPL missions despite nonprofit skew.

{"entity"=>"Vertex Aerospace", "reason"=>"Largest award ($414M obligated, $3.7B ceiling) for warfighter training with zero outlay.", "trigger"=>"Initial outlays or option exercise >$500M"}

{"entity"=>"Modern Technology Solutions", "reason"=>"Small biz with $625M ceiling on Artemis R&D, zero outlay, 29 subawards.", "trigger"=>"Funding ramp or GSA extensions to 2029"}

{"entity"=>"Peraton Enterprise Solutions", "reason"=>"$484M ceiling VA IT contract with $363M options upside to 2028.", "trigger"=>"Option notices or DHS/VA peer awards"}

{"entity"=>"Analogic Corp", "reason"=>"TSA CT systems ($200M ceiling) with extension potential to 2032.", "trigger"=>"Outlay acceleration >$20M/Q or new TSA mods"}