High-Value Federal Grants ($5M+) — February 12, 2026

Multiple $50M-$156M awards to Knight Point, Chenega, Harmonia, and Arora for USCG, FLETC, ICE IT/O&M/medical staffing signal robust homeland security modernization spend.

$1.45B definitive contract to AMI Metals for Southwest border steel underscores policy-driven defense spending priority.

$97M-$412M contracts to Lockheed, SAIC, MIT for IRIS, SAS2, DSN operations extend through 2027, with 20-80% outlays confirming execution.

$64M-$94M awards to LS Technologies (Tetra Tech), Raytheon, Concept Solutions for C3/IT/ STARS services show aviation tech upgrade focus.

Unexercised options average 30-50% above obligations (e.g., ECS $229M, SAIC $73M, Parsons $111M) could drive 20%+ revenue uplift if exercised.

Low/no outlays on 30% of contracts (e.g., AMI $0, ECS $0, Relyant $0) signal funding delays despite high obligations.

High subawards average 40-70% of value (e.g., Knight Point $84M/122 subs, SAIC $63M/7 subs) risk prime margin erosion and delays.

Firm fixed price (40% of contracts) and long durations to 2029 expose to cost inflation in IT/construction (e.g., Knight Point, Relyant).

DHS/FAA recompetes (e.g., Booz Allen, Harmonia) position winners for follow-ons in $100M+ IT modernization pipelines.

Small/8(a)/veteran-owned firms capturing 40% of awards (e.g., LS Tech, Chenega, Arora) amid set-asides signal M&A targets.

$500M+ in unexercised options across portfolio offer low-risk upside for primes with 60%+ outlay momentum.

65% of value ($2.6B) in IT/engineering (NAICS 5415xx) to DHS/DOJ/DOT, with 70% average outlays confirming backlog conversion.

DHS captures 35% ($1.4B beyond AMI) in IT/security/medical, aligning with border/immigration policy shifts.

NASA's $800M+ in 14-year contracts signal multi-year funding despite budget pressures.

{"entity"=>"AMI Metals", "reason"=>"$1.45B obligation is 36% of period total but $0 outlay/future award date flags binary execution risk.", "trigger"=>"2026-02-11 award confirmation or initial outlays"}

{"entity"=>"SAIC", "reason"=>"$97M NASA SAS2 with $87M outlayed and $73M options; high subawards but steady NASA exposure.", "trigger"=>"options exercise to $170M"}

{"entity"=>"ASGN (ECS Federal)", "reason"=>"$177M FBI IT with $229M options but $0 outlayed over 12-year term.", "trigger"=>"initial funding ramp or task orders"}

{"entity"=>"Small Biz Primes (Chenega, LS Tech, Arora)", "reason"=>"Aggregate $330M wins via set-asides with strong outlays position as acquisition targets.", "trigger"=>"strategic buyout announcements"}