High-Value Federal Grants ($5M+) — February 25, 2026

Ameresco's $217M GSA award anchors 19-year deep energy retrofits across 25 buildings in Region 5, signaling multi-decade revenue with $229M total potential.

Grunley's near-complete $120M USDA design-build project (97% outlayed) highlights reliable cash flows in federal facilities upgrades ending mid-2026.

Performant's $124M CMS order (64% outlayed) with $165M options offers multi-year healthcare auditing revenue through potential 2029 extension.

MTSI's $89M GSA delivery order balloons to $639M potential under partial small biz set-aside, targeting space services through 2029.

Alcyon's $139M JV award (48% outlayed) nears 2026 end with high subawards (56%), limiting direct upside but ensuring steady execution.

Firm fixed price in 3/5 contracts ($461M total) exposes margins to cost overruns over long periods (up to 19 years).

$0 outlays in two largest new awards ($306M combined) signal funding delays and early-stage uncertainty.

High subawards (e.g., 56% or $78M in Alcyon; $3M in MTSI) create subcontractor dependency and margin dilution.

Time & materials structure in MTSI invites audits on rates/hours amid $639M ceiling.

$800M+ in unexercised options across 4 contracts, led by MTSI's $550M+ upside.

Long-term extensions (e.g., 2027-2029 potential in Performant/MTSI; 2043 in Ameresco) tied to federal priorities in energy/space/health.

Near-completion in Grunley (97% outlayed) enables efficient final cash flows; Alcyon follow-ons from NASA needs.

GSA/USDA awards ($425M combined) drive energy/building upgrades with 19-year horizons.

MTSI's $639M ceiling underscores GSA push into space services via small biz set-asides.

CMS reliance on Performant for Medicare auditing signals enduring fiscal controls.

{"entity"=>"Ameresco (AMRC)", "reason"=>"$217M award is largest; 19-year term with $12M options offers top revenue visibility.", "trigger"=>"Initial outlays or Region 5 program expansions"}

{"entity"=>"Performant Financial (PFMT)", "reason"=>"$124M CMS order (64% outlayed) with $41M options aligns with Medicare trends.", "trigger"=>"2027 extension or outlay acceleration"}

{"entity"=>"Modern Technology Solutions (MTSI)", "reason"=>"$639M ceiling dwarfs $89M obligation, with space R&D extensions to 2029.", "trigger"=>"First outlays or option exercises"}