Executive Summary
These 7 mega contracts totaling $2,158,749,650 in obligations (1/7 defense-related at $149M for Skanska USA Civil Northeast Inc. from DOD, 6/7 civilian) highlight steady execution in civilian agencies, led by Department of State ($1.07B across CGI Federal Inc. $620M and AAR Government Services Inc. $449M) and HHS ($434M via Agiliti Health Inc. $327M and DLH LLC $107M). Dominant themes include medical equipment maintenance, aviation support, and IT/facilities management with strong outlay progress (e.g., $272M of Agiliti’s $327M already spent). Highest-conviction bullish signal is Agiliti Health Inc.’s $327M HHS ventilator/PAPR maintenance contract (firm fixed price, 83% outlayed, potential to $494M by 2028). Key risk is near-term recompetes for maturing contracts like CGI Federal Inc. (ends 2024-05-09) and AAR Government Services Inc. (ends 2024-05-31), vulnerable without extensions.
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Investment Signals(7)
- Agiliti Health Inc. Secures $327M HHS Ventilator Maintenance with 83% Outlays(HIGH)▲
Agiliti Health Inc. has $272M outlayed of $327M obligated (potential $494M with options) under firm fixed price contract for HHS ASPR ventilator/PAPR systems, signaling strong cash flow through 2026-08-27 (possible 2028). Full and open competition win underscores competitive positioning in medical equipment maintenance.
- AAR Government Services Inc. Executes $449M State Aviation Support with $290M Outlays(HIGH)▲
AAR Government Services Inc. has $290M outlayed of $449M obligated (potential $500M) cost-plus fixed fee delivery order for State Department aircraft maintenance through option year three to 2024-05-31. Steady progress despite $87M subawards indicates reliable revenue.
- DLH LLC Advances $107M NIH IT Management with 80% Outlays(MEDIUM)▲
DLH LLC has $86M outlayed of $107M firm fixed price BPA call (potential $112M) for NIH NHLBI IT services through 2026-04-15, reflecting established woman-owned capability in computer facilities management.
- Skanska USA Civil Northeast Inc. Wins $149M DOD Contract(MEDIUM)▲
Skanska USA Civil Northeast Inc. awarded $149M from DOD on 2023-12-05, sole defense signal in this batch amid civilian dominance.
- ABT Global LLC Books $279M USAID Malaria Vector Control to 2027(MEDIUM)▲
ABT Global LLC has $160M outlayed of $279M cost-plus fixed fee (potential $810M) for USAID malaria prevention through 2027-12-18, with early execution over 5-year term.
- CGI Federal Inc. $620M State Passport IT at Mid-Life with $191M Outlays(MEDIUM)▲
CGI Federal Inc. (Timken subsidiary) has $191M outlayed of $620M time & materials order (potential $844M) for State passport services ending 2024-05-09, neutral due to maturing phase and lower-than-expected annual pacing (~$32M/year actual).
- Amentum Technology Inc. $227M NASA Facilities Steady at $139M Outlays(MEDIUM)▲
Amentum Technology Inc. has $139M outlayed of $227M firm fixed price (potential $252M) for NASA Ames maintenance to 2026-04-12, providing stable long-term (~10.5 years) but low-tech facilities revenue.
Risk Flags(3)
- Competition[HIGH RISK]▼
CGI Federal Inc. $620M State contract ends 2024-05-09 and AAR Government Services Inc. $449M ends 2024-05-31 without indicated extensions, exposing to recompete uncertainty.
- Execution[MEDIUM RISK]▼
Firm fixed price structures heighten performance risk for Agiliti Health Inc. $327M HHS (high risk), Amentum Technology Inc. $227M NASA (high risk), and DLH LLC $107M NIH (high risk).
- Concentration[MEDIUM RISK]▼
Subawards erode net revenue: AAR Government Services Inc. $87M (19% of $449M) and ABT Global LLC $64M (23% of $279M outlayed).
Opportunities(3)
- ◆
Agiliti Health Inc. options/exercise to $494M HHS and extension to 2028-02-27 for ventilator maintenance.
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ABT Global LLC potential to $810M USAID malaria control through 2027-12-18.
- ◆
Skanska USA Civil Northeast Inc. $149M DOD award as rare defense signal, watch for follow-ons.
Sector Themes(2)
- ◆
Department of State dominates with $1.07B: AAR Government Services Inc. $449M aircraft maintenance (cost-plus, $290M outlayed) and CGI Federal Inc. $620M passport IT (time & materials, $191M outlayed), both full/open competition.
- ◆
HHS awards $434M: Agiliti Health Inc. $327M ventilator maintenance (83% outlayed, to 2026+) and DLH LLC $107M NIH IT (80% outlayed, to 2026), signaling health infrastructure priority.
Watch List(4)
- 👁
{"entity"=>"CGI Federal Inc.", "reason"=>"$620M State obligation with only $191M outlayed and end 2024-05-09", "trigger"=>"outlay progress to $620M or recompete announcement"}
- 👁
{"entity"=>"AAR Government Services Inc.", "reason"=>"$449M State with $290M outlayed, option year three active but ends 2024-05-31", "trigger"=>"extensions/modifications beyond 2024-05-31"}
- 👁
{"entity"=>"Agiliti Health Inc.", "reason"=>"$327M HHS 83% executed, options to $494M and possible 2028 extension", "trigger"=>"option exercises post-2026-08-27"}
- 👁
{"entity"=>"Skanska USA Civil Northeast Inc.", "reason"=>"Sole $149M DOD award in civilian-heavy batch", "trigger"=>"DOD follow-on announcements"}
Get daily alerts with 7 investment signals, 3 risk alerts, 3 opportunities and full AI analysis of all 7 filings
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