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New Federal Contractors — December 30, 2025

New Federal Contractors

30 total filings analysed

Executive Summary

New federal contracts totaling $11.65B highlight bullish signals for AECOM (via UCOR's $3.9B DOE decontamination deal) and Leidos (via QTC's ~$1.77B in VA FY26 medical exams), representing ~48% of period value. A $3.3B VA medical disability exam cluster across Leidos/QTC and VES signals robust FY26 healthcare services demand, while DOE lab management ($2B+) and DHS shipbuilding/construction add infrastructure tailwinds. Firm fixed price dominance (80%+ of contracts) flags execution risks amid $0 outlays in 60% of awards.

Tracking the trend? Catch up on the prior New Federal Contractors digest from December 29, 2025.

Investment Signals(5)

  • AECOM secures mega DOE remediation contract(HIGH)

    UCOR (AECOM sub) wins $3.9B obligation (up to $4.17B options) for Oak Ridge D&D, with $839M outlayed signaling revenue ramp.

  • Leidos dominates VA FY26 medical exams(HIGH)

    QTC (Leidos sub) captures $1.77B across 4 awards for 2026 disability exams, part of $3.3B VA cluster underscoring healthcare services growth.

  • DHS prioritizes Arctic shipbuilding(MEDIUM)

    $520M obligation (up to $1.12B options) to RAUMA for Coast Guard cutters signals multi-year vessel demand.

  • IT services revenue visibility through 2027+(HIGH)

    CACI ($284M GSA IT), GD IT ($177M Ed Dept), Peraton ($64M HHS) provide stable multi-year outlays totaling $525M+.

  • Firm fixed price prevalent in new awards(HIGH)

    85%+ of contracts (incl. $6B+ VA/VA cluster) are FFP, exposing margins to cost overruns in healthcare/construction.

Risk Flags(3)

  • Execution[HIGH RISK]

    $0 outlayed in 18 contracts ($4.2B+ value, incl. all 10 VA FY26 awards) signals funding/execution delays.

  • Market[HIGH RISK]

    Firm fixed price in construction/shipbuilding ($1.6B+, e.g., RAUMA, Barnard, GARCO) vulnerable to inflation/labor costs.

  • Execution[MEDIUM RISK]

    Long-duration contracts (10+ with ends 2026-2029) exposed to budget cuts, e.g., DOE FERMI to 2029.

Opportunities(3)

  • $1.2B+ unexercised options (e.g., RAUMA $602M, UCOR $281M, CACI $93M) across 15 contracts.

  • VA FY26 medical exams $3.3B cluster positions winners for FY27 repeat awards in growing veterans services.

  • Job Corps operations multi-year wins ($183M total to Education & Training Resources) signal DOL vocational training expansion.

Sector Themes(3)

  • 10 contracts totaling $3.3B for FY26 medical disability exams (50%+ to Leidos/QTC) reflect veterans benefits prioritization.

  • $5.86B (50% period value) in Oak Ridge D&D (AECOM) and FNAL ops sustains remediation/R&D spending.

  • $1B+ in shipbuilding, border infra, dams (RAUMA, GARCO, Barnard) underscores security/water priorities.

Watch List(4)

  • 👁

    {"entity"=>"Leidos Holdings (QTC)", "reason"=>"$1.77B VA wins = 15% period value; FY26 ramp critical for revenue guide.", "trigger"=>"Q1 2026 outlays >20% of obligation"}

  • 👁

    {"entity"=>"AECOM (UCOR)", "reason"=>"$3.9B DOE deal (34% value) with expired base end; extension key.", "trigger"=>"2026 DOE EM budget or mod notices"}

  • 👁

    {"entity"=>"VES Inc.", "reason"=>"$1.52B VA awards; private firm with scale may attract strategic buyers.", "trigger"=>"FY26 execution + M&A rumors"}

  • 👁

    {"entity"=>"Job Corps operators (Education & Training Resources)", "reason"=>"$105M+ multi-site wins signal DOL program growth; set-aside advantages.", "trigger"=>"Option exercises to $86M+ ceilings"}

Get daily alerts with 5 investment signals, 3 risk alerts, 3 opportunities and full AI analysis of all 30 filings

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