Executive Summary
These 12 significant contract modifications totaling $2,556,508,585 in obligations are entirely civilian agency-focused (0/12 defense-related per aggregate, though Skanska USA Civil Northeast Inc. holds the sole $149M DOD award), spanning State, HHS, USAID, NASA, DHS, USDA, DOE, and GSA. Dominant themes include IT facilities management, medical equipment maintenance, aviation support, and facilities remediation, with bullish signals from strong outlay execution in high-value awards like AAR Government Services ($449M State) and Agiliti Health ($327M HHS). Highest-conviction bullish signal is Agiliti Health's $327M HHS ventilator maintenance contract with $272M already outlayed and extension potential to 2028. Key risk is high firm-fixed-price execution exposure across multiple contracts (e.g., Amentum $227M NASA, DLH $107M HHS), alongside near-term re-competes post-2024 endings. Watch outlay progress and option exercises amid maturing performance periods ending 2024-2028.
Tracking the trend? Catch up on the prior Significant Contract Modifications ($10M+) digest from April 15, 2026.
Investment Signals(7)
- AAR Government Services Secures $449M State Aviation Maintenance Execution(HIGH)▲
$449M total obligation (base + options $500M) with $290M outlayed through option year three on cost-plus-fixed-fee delivery order ending May 2024 signals strong revenue realization for aircraft repair services.
- Agiliti Health Advances $327M HHS Ventilator Maintenance with $272M Outlays(HIGH)▲
$327M firm-fixed-price obligation (base + options $494M) for HHS ASPR ventilator/PAPR maintenance shows $272M outlayed progress, with performance to 2026-2028.
- ABT Global Locks $279M USAID Malaria Vector Control Through 2027(MEDIUM)▲
$279M cost-plus-fixed-fee obligation (base + options $810M) with $160M outlayed on 5-year USAID contract indicates steady professional services revenue.
- Skanska USA Civil Northeast Wins $149M DOD Contract Modification(MEDIUM)▲
$149M DOD obligation signals construction sector exposure despite civilian-heavy stream.
- DLH LLC Nears Completion on $107M NIH IT Management BPA Call(HIGH)▲
$107M firm-fixed-price obligation with $86M outlayed on 5-year NIH contract to April 2026 demonstrates reliable IT facilities management execution.
- CGI Federal Hits $620M State Passport Services Obligation Milestone(MEDIUM)▲
$620M time-and-materials obligation (base + options $844M) with $191M outlayed on maturing 2017 contract ending May 2024 offers steady but finite IT revenue.
- Axiom Space Executes $100M NASA EVA Demo with $77M Outlays(MEDIUM)▲
$100M firm-fixed-price delivery order (base + options $172M) for space vehicle EVA demonstration shows $77M outlayed progress to 2028.
Risk Flags(3)
- Execution[HIGH RISK]▼
High firm-fixed-price risk on Agiliti Health $327M HHS, Amentum $227M NASA, DLH $107M NIH, and Axiom $100M NASA contracts amid significant remaining obligations.
- Competition[MEDIUM RISK]▼
Maturing contracts like CGI Federal $620M State (ends May 2024), AAR $449M State (May 2024), and LMI $94M DHS (April 2026) face re-compete uncertainty.
- Concentration[MEDIUM RISK]▼
Subawards erode net revenue: AAR $87M (19% of $449M), ABT $64M (23% of $279M), LMI $28M (30% of $94M).
Opportunities(3)
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Option exercises on Agiliti Health $167M upside to $494M HHS, ABT Global $531M to $810M USAID, Axiom $72M to $172M NASA.
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Extensions possible on Amentum NASA to Aug 2026, Agiliti HHS to Feb 2028.
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California Dairies $71M USDA butter contract starts April 2026 with full obligation.
Sector Themes(3)
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HHS awards to Agiliti Health ($327M ventilators/PAPR) and DLH ($107M NIH IT) with high outlays ($272M + $86M) signal sustained demand for medical equipment and IT support.
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CGI Federal $620M passport IT and AAR $449M aviation maintenance show $191M + $290M outlays on contracts ending 2024.
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Amentum $227M facilities maintenance (to 2026) and Axiom $100M EVA demo (to 2028) with $139M + $77M outlays underscore long-term civilian space support.
Watch List(5)
- 👁
{"entity"=>"CGI Federal Inc.", "reason"=>"$620M State obligation with $191M outlayed, ends May 2024.", "trigger"=>"Re-compete announcement post-2024-05-09"}
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{"entity"=>"AAR Government Services, Inc.", "reason"=>"$449M State with $290M outlayed, option year three active.", "trigger"=>"Extensions beyond 2024-05-31"}
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{"entity"=>"Agiliti Health Inc.", "reason"=>"$327M HHS with $272M outlayed, options to $494M.", "trigger"=>"Option exercises and extension to 2028-02-27"}
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{"entity"=>"ABT Global LLC", "reason"=>"$279M USAID to 2027, potential $810M.", "trigger"=>"Option exercises 2024-2027"}
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{"entity"=>"General Dynamics Information Technology, Inc.", "reason"=>"$66M GSA IT with $47M outlayed to 2025.", "trigger"=>"Remaining $19M outlays by 2025-08-03"}
Get daily alerts with 7 investment signals, 3 risk alerts, 3 opportunities and full AI analysis of all 12 filings
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